CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians, Vol 28, 33-46, Copyright
© 1978 by American Cancer Society
Probabilities of Eventually Developing and of Dying of Cancer
(Risk among persons previously undiagnosed with the cancer)
Herbert Seidman M.B.A.1,
Edwin Silverberg B.S.2, and
Ashley Bodden 3
1 Chief, Statistical Analyses, Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Department of Research, American Cancer Society, New York, New York.
2 Project Statistician, Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Department of Research, American Cancer Society, New York, New York.
3 Programmer Analyst, Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Department of Research, American Cancer Society, New York, New York.
A new method has been devised to compute the probabilities of developing and dying of cancer among persons not previously diagnosed with that cancer. Non-melanoma skin cancer is not included in these calculations. In general, "cancer" means invasive cancer though some findings are presented for data which include carcinoma in situ.
The probability of eventually developing cancer including carcinoma in situ is increasing in all race-sex groups. This has also occurred for invasive cancer except in white females. In white females, the decline in invasive cancer incidence rates has been great enough to balance the added number of cancer cases resulting from increases in life expectancy and a consequent larger population subject to cancer risk. In males, there have been substantial increases in the probabilities of eventually developing cancer of the lung and of the prostate. In the 1970 figures, the white females still show the highest probability at birth of eventually developing cancer of any of the race-sex groups, 27 percent for invasive cancer and 30 percent including carcinoma in situ. The sharpest increases were evident for the non-white males, up from 15 percent in the 1950 figures to 23 percent in 1970.
The probability of eventually dying of cancer is increasing, even among white females; the cancer death rates are decreasing for white females, but the death rates for other causes are decreasing more rapidly. The probability at birth of eventually dying of cancer is now greater for males of a given race than for females, reversing the situation of a number of years ago. In the 1970 figures, the probabilities were 17 percent for white males compared with 16 percent for white females; they were 15 percent for non-white males compared with 13 percent for non-white females.
