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Dr. Greenlee was Program Director for Cancer Surveillance in the Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA. He is currently a lead scientist with the Marshfield Medical Research Foundation, Marshfield, WI.
Ms. Hill-Harmon is an Epidemiologist in the Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Murray is Manager, Surveillance Data Systems, in the Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Thun is Vice-President of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| METHODS |
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The observed trend in prostate cancer incidence was not compatible with the selected forecasting model, as rates increased markedly between 1988 and 1992, declined sharply between 1992 and 1995, and leveled off from 1995 to 1997.3 This trend likely reflects extensive use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in a previously unscreened population and the subsequent increase in diagnoses at an early stage.4 We therefore assumed that the number of prostate cancer cases is approaching the pattern in effect prior to widespread use of PSA screening, and estimated new cases of prostate cancer for 2001 using a linear projection based on data from 1979 to 1989 and 1995 to 1997 only.
Because cancer incidence rates and case counts for 1979 through 1997 were not available for many states, we could not use the methods mentioned earlier to estimate new cases for individual states. To derive these estimates, we relied on state cancer death data and assumed that the ratio of cancer deaths to cancer cases for each state was the same as the ratio for the US.2
Estimated Cancer Deaths
We estimated the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the US and in each state in the year 2001 using underlying cause-of-death data from death certificates, as reported to the National Center for Health Statistics.5 The recorded numbers of cancer deaths occurring annually from 1979 to 1998 in the US and in each state were fit with autoregressive quadratic models to forecast the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2001.
Other Statistics
Mortality statistics for the leading causes of death, the leading causes of death from cancer, and age-adjusted cancer mortality rates for 1930 to 1997 were obtained using data from the National Center for Health Statistics.5 Age-adjusted cancer incidence rates, the probability of developing cancer, and five-year relative survival rates were obtained from the SEER program.3,6
| SELECTED FINDINGS |
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Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer
The lifetime probability of developing cancer is higher in men (43.48%) than in women (38.34%) (Table 3
), but women have a higher probability than men of developing any cancer before age 60. In general, however, the probability of developing specific cancers is higher in men than women at all ages, with the exception of breast cancer and cancers specific to women.
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A significant downturn in the incidence of lung and bronchus cancer in males began in the 1980s; between 1992 and 1997, incidence rates decreased 3.2% per year. Overall incidence rates of female lung and bronchus cancer have been stable since 1991, but rates have begun to decline among women aged 40 to 59.8
Prostate cancer incidence was essentially level from 1995 to 1997, following large annual increases of 17.5% from 1988 to 1992 and a sharp decline of 10.3% per year from 1992 to 1995.3
Expected Numbers of Cancer Deaths
In 2001, an estimated 553,400 Americans are expected to die of cancer—more than 1,500 people a day (Table 4
). The estimated numbers of cancer deaths in 2001 by state are shown in Table 5
.
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Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colon and rectum combined are expected to contribute 52% of cancer deaths among men in the year 2001 (Fig. 5
). Among women, cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colon and rectum are expected to account for 51% of all cancer deaths in 2001 (Fig. 5
). Lung cancer has surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death in women since 1987 and is expected to account for 25% of all female cancer deaths in 2001.
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| CANCER OCCURRENCE BY RACE/ETHNICITY |
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African Americans are about 33% more likely to die of cancer than are whites, and more than twice as likely to die from cancer as are Asian/Pacific Islanders, American Indians, and Hispanics. Between 1990 and 1997, mortality rates decreased significantly among whites (0.7% per year), blacks (1.0% per year), Hispanics (0.9% per year), and Asian/Pacific Islanders (0.8% per year), but may be increasing among American Indians.3
Black women are more likely to die of breast and colon and rectum cancers than are women of any other racial or ethnic group, and lung and bronchus cancer death rates are particularly high for both black and white women compared with other racial or ethnic groups. As was seen with incidence rates, black men have the highest death rates of colon and rectum, lung and bronchus, and prostate cancer.3
Cancer Survival
Contributing to the higher death rates among black men and women is a poorer probability of survival once diagnosed with cancer. Blacks are less likely than whites to be diagnosed with cancer at a localized stage, when the disease may be more easily and successfully treated, and more likely to be diagnosed with cancer at a regional or distant stage of disease. This is true for most of the common cancer sites (Fig. 9
). Furthermore, for nearly every cancer site, blacks have lower five-year relative survival rates than whites at each stage of diagnosis, suggesting possible influences of differences in treatment, tumor pathology, and comorbid conditions (Fig. 10
).
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| CANCER IN CHILDREN |
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| LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES |
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Our estimates are based on the most currently available cancer mortality and incidence data; however, these data are three and four years old, respectively, at the time that the estimates are calculated. As such, the effect of large changes occurring in the three or four-year interval between 1997 or 1998 and 2001 cannot be captured by our modeling efforts. Finally, our estimates of new cancer cases are based on incidence rates for the geographic locations that participate in the SEER program and, therefore, may not be representative of the total US.
Despite these limitations, the American Cancer Society estimates do provide evidence of the current patterns of cancer incidence and mortality in the US. Such estimates will assist our continuing efforts to reduce the public health burden of cancer in 21st century.
| Footnotes |
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This article is also available online at www.cancer.org.
| REFERENCES |
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H. J. Litman, S. Bhasin, C. L. Link, A. B. Araujo, J. B. McKinlay, and for the Boston Area Community Health Survey Invest Serum Androgen Levels in Black, Hispanic, and White Men J. Clin. Endocrinol. Metab., November 1, 2006; 91(11): 4326 - 4334. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S L El Sharkawy, N F Abbas, M A Badawi, and M A El Shaer Metallothionein isoform II expression in hyperplastic, dysplastic and neoplastic prostatic lesions J. Clin. Pathol., November 1, 2006; 59(11): 1171 - 1174. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Pectasides, E. Pectasides, A. Psyrri, and T. Economopoulos Treatment Issues in Clear Cell Carcinoma of the Ovary: A Different Entity? Oncologist, November 1, 2006; 11(10): 1089 - 1094. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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W. Xu, L. Ngo, G. Perez, M. Dokmanovic, and P. A. Marks Intrinsic apoptotic and thioredoxin pathways in human prostate cancer cell response to histone deacetylase inhibitor PNAS, October 17, 2006; 103(42): 15540 - 15545. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. Takahashi, C. Furukawa, A. Takano, N. Ishikawa, T. Kato, S. Hayama, C. Suzuki, W. Yasui, K. Inai, S. Sone, et al. The Neuromedin U-Growth Hormone Secretagogue Receptor 1b/Neurotensin Receptor 1 Oncogenic Signaling Pathway as a Therapeutic Target for Lung Cancer Cancer Res., October 1, 2006; 66(19): 9408 - 9419. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H. Li and B. C. Tai RNASEL Gene Polymorphisms and the Risk of Prostate Cancer: a Meta-analysis. Clin. Cancer Res., October 1, 2006; 12(19): 5713 - 5719. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. S. Munday, M. M. Brennan, and M. Kiupel Altered Expression of {beta}-catenin, E-cadherin, Cycloxygenase-2, and p53 Protein by Ovine Intestinal Adenocarcinoma Cells. Vet. Pathol., September 1, 2006; 43(5): 613 - 621. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Chung, D. Liou, S. Karlan, A. Waxman, K. Fujimoto, M. Hagiike, and E. H. Phillips Preoperative FDG-PET for Axillary Metastases in Patients With Breast Cancer Arch Surg, August 1, 2006; 141(8): 783 - 789. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Q.-a. Yuan, H. H. Simmons, M. K. Robinson, M. Russeva, W. A. Marasco, and G. P. Adams Development of engineered antibodies specific for the Mullerian inhibiting substance type II receptor: a promising candidate for targeted therapy of ovarian cancer. Mol. Cancer Ther., August 1, 2006; 5(8): 2096 - 2105. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. O. Hoque, S. Begum, O. Topaloglu, A. Chatterjee, E. Rosenbaum, W. Van Criekinge, W. H. Westra, M. Schoenberg, M. Zahurak, S. N. Goodman, et al. Quantitation of promoter methylation of multiple genes in urine DNA and bladder cancer detection. J Natl Cancer Inst, July 19, 2006; 98(14): 996 - 1004. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J.-Y. Chung, T. Braunschweig, N. Hu, M. Roth, J. L. Traicoff, Q.-H. Wang, V. Knezevic, P. R. Taylor, and S. M. Hewitt A multiplex tissue immunoblotting assay for proteomic profiling: a pilot study of the normal to tumor transition of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., July 1, 2006; 15(7): 1403 - 1408. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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F. Cappuzzo, L. Toschi, G. Tallini, G. L. Ceresoli, I. Domenichini, S. Bartolini, G. Finocchiaro, E. Magrini, G. Metro, A. Cancellieri, et al. Insulin-like growth factor receptor 1 (IGFR-1) is significantly associated with longer survival in non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with gefitinib Ann. Onc., July 1, 2006; 17(7): 1120 - 1127. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Z. Zhang, Y. Wang, R. Yao, R. A. Lubet, and M. You p53 Transgenic Mice Are Highly Susceptible to 4-Nitroquinoline-1-Oxide-Induced Oral Cancer Mol. Cancer Res., June 1, 2006; 4(6): 401 - 410. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. I. Neugut, M. Matasar, X. Wang, R. McBride, J. S. Jacobson, W.-Y. Tsai, V. R. Grann, and D. L. Hershman Duration of Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Colon Cancer and Survival Among the Elderly J. Clin. Oncol., May 20, 2006; 24(15): 2368 - 2375. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Yang, C. E. Bohl, V. A. Nair, S. M. Mustafa, S. S. Hong, D. D. Miller, and J. T. Dalton Preclinical Pharmacology of a Nonsteroidal Ligand for Androgen Receptor-Mediated Imaging of Prostate Cancer J. Pharmacol. Exp. Ther., April 1, 2006; 317(1): 402 - 408. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. Anderson, J. S. Jacobson, D. F. Heitjan, J. G. Zivin, D. Hershman, A. I. Neugut, and V. R. Grann Cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies for women with a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation. Ann Intern Med, March 21, 2006; 144(6): 397 - 406. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Gelbard, C. T. Garnett, S. I. Abrams, V. Patel, J. S. Gutkind, C. Palena, K.-Y. Tsang, J. Schlom, and J. W. Hodge Combination Chemotherapy and Radiation of Human Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck Augments CTL-Mediated Lysis. Clin. Cancer Res., March 15, 2006; 12(6): 1897 - 1905. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Bratasz, N. M. Weir, N. L. Parinandi, J. L. Zweier, R. Sridhar, L. J. Ignarro, and P. Kuppusamy Reversal to cisplatin sensitivity in recurrent human ovarian cancer cells by NCX-4016, a nitro derivative of aspirin PNAS, March 7, 2006; 103(10): 3914 - 3919. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. M. Wiseman, C. Baliski, R. Irvine, D. Anderson, G. Wilkins, D. Filipenko, H. Zhang, and S. Bugis Hemithyroidectomy: The Optimal Initial Surgical Approach for Individuals Undergoing Surgery for a Cytological Diagnosis of Follicular Neoplasm Ann. Surg. Oncol., March 1, 2006; 13(3): 425 - 432. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Pectasides, M. Pectasides, and T. Economopoulos Brain metastases from epithelial ovarian cancer: a review of the literature. Oncologist, March 1, 2006; 11(3): 252 - 260. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Becton, G. V. Dahl, Y. Ravindranath, M. N. Chang, F. G. Behm, S. C. Raimondi, D. R. Head, K. C. Stine, N. J. Lacayo, B. I. Sikic, et al. Randomized use of cyclosporin A (CsA) to modulate P-glycoprotein in children with AML in remission: Pediatric Oncology Group Study 9421 Blood, February 15, 2006; 107(4): 1315 - 1324. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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International Breast Cancer Study Group Randomized Trial Comparing Axillary Clearance Versus No Axillary Clearance in Older Patients With Breast Cancer: First Results of International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 10-93 J. Clin. Oncol., January 20, 2006; 24(3): 337 - 344. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. Tassi, R. T. Henke, E. T. Bowden, M. R. Swift, D. P. Kodack, A. H. Kuo, A. Maitra, and A. Wellstein Expression of a Fibroblast Growth Factor-Binding Protein during the Development of Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas and Colon Cancer Res., January 15, 2006; 66(2): 1191 - 1198. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Valmori, F. Qian, M. Ayyoub, C. Renner, A. Merlo, S. Gjnatic, E. Stockert, D. Driscoll, S. Lele, L. J. Old, et al. Expression of Synovial Sarcoma X (SSX) Antigens in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer and Identification of SSX-4 Epitopes Recognized by CD4+ T Cells Clin. Cancer Res., January 15, 2006; 12(2): 398 - 404. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Fiore, P. G. Casali, R. Miceli, L. Mariani, R. Bertulli, L. Lozza, P. Collini, P. Olmi, C. Mussi, and A. Gronchi Prognostic Effect of Re-Excision in Adult Soft Tissue Sarcoma of the Extremity Ann. Surg. Oncol., January 1, 2006; 13(1): 110 - 117. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. B. d. O. Santos, C. R. Cernea, M. Inoue, and A. R. Ferraz Selective Neck Dissection for Node-Positive Necks in Patients With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Word of Caution Arch Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg, January 1, 2006; 132(1): 79 - 81. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Gronborg, T. Z. Kristiansen, A. Iwahori, R. Chang, R. Reddy, N. Sato, H. Molina, O. N. Jensen, R. H. Hruban, M. G. Goggins, et al. Biomarker Discovery from Pancreatic Cancer Secretome Using a Differential Proteomic Approach Mol. Cell. Proteomics, January 1, 2006; 5(1): 157 - 171. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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W. Wang, J. Hayashi, and G. Serrero PC Cell-Derived Growth Factor Confers Resistance to Dexamethasone and Promotes Tumorigenesis in Human Multiple Myeloma Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2006; 12(1): 49 - 56. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Suzuki, Y. Daigo, N. Ishikawa, T. Kato, S. Hayama, T. Ito, E. Tsuchiya, and Y. Nakamura ANLN Plays a Critical Role in Human Lung Carcinogenesis through the Activation of RHOA and by Involvement in the Phosphoinositide 3-Kinase/AKT Pathway Cancer Res., December 15, 2005; 65(24): 11314 - 11325. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Y. Kitagawa, J. Dai, J. Zhang, J. M. Keller, J. Nor, Z. Yao, and E. T. Keller Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Contributes to Prostate Cancer-Mediated Osteoblastic Activity Cancer Res., December 1, 2005; 65(23): 10921 - 10929. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. S. Stearman, L. Dwyer-Nield, L. Zerbe, S. A. Blaine, Z. Chan, P. A. Bunn Jr., G. L. Johnson, F. R. Hirsch, D. T. Merrick, W. A. Franklin, et al. Analysis of Orthologous Gene Expression between Human Pulmonary Adenocarcinoma and a Carcinogen-Induced Murine Model Am. J. Pathol., December 1, 2005; 167(6): 1763 - 1775. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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N. Nathansohn, J. Schachter, and H. Gutman Patterns of Recurrence in Patients With Melanoma After Radical Lymph Node Dissection Arch Surg, December 1, 2005; 140(12): 1172 - 1177. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. F. Munden, S. S. Swisher, C. W. Stevens, and D. J. Stewart Imaging of the Patient with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Radiology, December 1, 2005; 237(3): 803 - 818. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H.-Y. Lee, S.-H. Oh, J. K. Woo, W.-Y. Kim, C. S. Van Pelt, R. E. Price, D. Cody, H. Tran, J. M. Pezzuto, R. M. Moriarty, et al. Chemopreventive Effects of Deguelin, a Novel Akt Inhibitor, on Tobacco-Induced Lung Tumorigenesis J Natl Cancer Inst, November 16, 2005; 97(22): 1695 - 1699. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. Fan, M. Zhou, M. K. Pathak, D. J. Lindner, C. Z. Altuntas, V. K. Tuohy, E. C. Borden, and T. Yi Sodium Stibogluconate Interacts with IL-2 in Anti-Renca Tumor Action via a T Cell-Dependent Mechanism in Connection with Induction of Tumor-Infiltrating Macrophages J. Immunol., November 15, 2005; 175(10): 7003 - 7008. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S.-M. Tu, J. Kim, L. C. Pagliaro, F. Vakar-Lopez, F. C. Wong, S. Wen, R. General, D. A. Podoloff, S.-H. Lin, and C. J. Logothetis Therapy Tolerance in Selected Patients With Androgen-Independent Prostate Cancer Following Strontium-89 Combined With Chemotherapy J. Clin. Oncol., November 1, 2005; 23(31): 7904 - 7910. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Yamamoto, Y. Tomita, T. Uruno, Y. Hoshida, Y. Qiu, N. Iizuka, I. Nakamichi, A. Miyauchi, and K. Aozasa Increased Expression of Valosin-Containing Protein (p97) Is Correlated With Disease Recurrence in Follicular Thyroid Cancer Ann. Surg. Oncol., November 1, 2005; 12(11): 925 - 934. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Fabbri, D. Iliopoulos, F. Trapasso, R. I. Aqeilan, A. Cimmino, N. Zanesi, S. Yendamuri, S.-Y. Han, D. Amadori, K. Huebner, et al. WWOX gene restoration prevents lung cancer growth in vitro and in vivo PNAS, October 25, 2005; 102(43): 15611 - 15616. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Gallardo, B. Rubio, L. Villanueva, and O. Barajas Gallbladder Cancer, a Different Disease that Needs Individual Trials J. Clin. Oncol., October 20, 2005; 23(30): 7753 - 7754. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R Houghton and G Rottenberg Testicular lumps Imaging, October 1, 2005; 17(2): 101 - 112. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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