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Ms. Ghafoor is Epidemiologist, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Jemal is Program Director for Cancer Occurrence, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Cokkinides is Program Director, Risk Factor Surveillance, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Ms. Cardinez is Epidemiologist, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Murray is Research Analyst, Surveillance Data Systems, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Ms. Samuels is Manager, Surveillance Information Services, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Thun is Vice President for Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Estimated New Cancer Cases
New cancer cases are estimated because the United States has no nationwide cancer registry. Therefore, exactly how many new cases of cancer are diagnosed each year in the United States and in each individual state is unknown. Consequently, we first estimated the number of new cancer cases occurring annually in the United States from 1979 through 1999 using the age-specific cancer incidence data collected by NCIs SEER program coupled with population data reported by the US Census Bureau. Using an autoregressive quadratic model11 based on cases from those previous years, we forecast the number of cases expected to be diagnosed in the United States in the year 2003.
The autoregressive model used to estimate incident cases for other cancers was not compatible with the trends observed in prostate cancer incidence rates, however, because rates increased quickly between 1988 and 1992 and then declined just as sharply from 1992 to 1995, and then eventually leveled off from 1995 to 1999. This trend likely reflects the widespread use of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening and the subsequent increase in early-stage cancer diagnoses in a previously unscreened population. Because the temporal trends in prostate cancer incidence now approximate that observed prior to the widespread use of PSA screening, we estimated the number of incident cases using a linear model based on data from 1979 to 1989 and 1995 to 1999 only.
The above-mentioned method cannot be used to estimate the number of cases for individual states, since many have incomplete registration of new cases. To derive the estimates, we relied on mortality data from each state, and assumed that the ratio of cancer deaths to cancer cases was the same for individual states as for the United States as a whole.
Estimated Cancer Deaths
To estimate the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the United States and in each state in the year 2003, we used the underlying cause-of-death data from death certificates as reported to the National Center for Health Statistics. Using the aforementioned regression model11 on recorded number of cancer deaths occurring annually from 1979 to 1999, we forecast the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2003.
Other Statistics
Trends in cancer incidence, mortality, and five-year relative survival rates for selected cancers are provided based on data from 1973 through 1999.2 Cancer incidence and death rates are standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 person-years. We also provide mortality statistics for the leading causes of death (Table 1
) and rate ratios for African Americans relative to whites (Tables 2 and 3![]()
). This report also provides recent prevalence estimates of behavioral factors related to cancer (i.e., tobacco use, physical activity, use of cancer screening); these estimates are derived from national and state population-based surveys of adults and youths. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, a survey of high school students, is routinely administered in all randomly-selected schools in participating states (or large metropolitan cities); consenting students self-report their behavioral infor-mation. The Behavioral Risk Factor Sur-veillance System and the National Health Interview Survey are administered annually to adults by telephone and in-person, respectively. The methodological sampling techniques used in these surveys assure the random selection of participants. Therefore, appropriately-weighted estimates are considered representative of the adult (aged 18 and older) civilian population. The weighted estimates are calculated in SUDAAN, a specialized program that adjusts for varying sampling selection, non-response, non-coverage, and other post-stratification factors in calculating point estimates and standard errors.
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| SELECTED FINDINGS |
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Comparative Cancer Rates in African Americans and Whites
Tables 2 and 3![]()
show rate ratios in descending order for selected cancers in which incidence and death rates are greater or smaller in African Americans compared with whites. In African-American males, the incidence rate ratios range from 2.0 for myeloma to 0.5 for urinary bladder. In general, the pattern seen in males is similar to that observed in females; however, incidence rate ratios are greater for African-American females. Similar disparities exist for death rates between African Americans and whites. In males, death rate ratios range from 2.4 for laryngeal cancers to 0.1 for melanoma. Among females, death rate ratios range from 2.3 for stomach cancers to 0.2 for melanoma.
Trends in Cancer Incidence and Mortality
In African Americans, incidence rates for all cancers combined increased from the early 1970s to early 1990s in both males and females, although the incidence rates were higher and increased faster in males than in females (Figure 2
). During the 1990s, however, rates decreased in African-American males while stabilizing in African-American females. The decrease in incidence rates in men largely involved cancers of the lung and prostate. The mortality rate for all cancers combined increased among African Americans from 1973 to 1992, but decreased after 1992, by 1.2 percent per year on average (Figure 2
). The decline for African-American males (2.1 percent per year since 1993) was larger than the decline for African-American females (0.4 percent per year since 1991).
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Colon and Rectum
Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer among both African-American men and women (Figure 1
), and the second most common for both sexes combined. The incidence rate of colorectal cancer in African Americans increased rapidly in the 1970s, but has stabilized since the 1980s (Figures 3A and 3B![]()
). By comparison, the colorectal cancer incidence rate in whites increased through the mid-1980s, decreased significantly until 1995, and stabilized thereafter. Factors that may affect colorectal cancer incidence rates include screening, increased polyp removal (which prevents progression to invasive cancers), estrogen and progesterone replacement therapy in women,18 and patterns of diet, obesity, and physical activity or inactivity.19 Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer death among both African-American males and females (Figure 1
). Overall, colorectal cancer death rates declined in African Americans from 1985 to 1999; however, the average annual reduction in death rates has been smaller among African Americans than in whites, 0.3 percent versus 1.8 percent, respectively (Figures 4A and 4B![]()
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Cancer Survival
Five-year relative survival rates are commonly used to monitor progress in the early detection and treatment of cancer. In general, African Americans with cancer have a lower five-year relative survival rate than whites for each of the eleven selected cancers sites (Figure 5
) and at all stages of diagnosis (Figure 6
).20 These differences are believed to reflect a combination of factors such as poverty and less access to medical care. The latter may result in delayed diagnosis of disease (so the cancer spreads to regional or distant sites) (Figure 7
) and/or suboptimal treatment. Several studies have shown that survival rates are comparable between African Americans and whites when patients receive equal treatment.13,21
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| LIFESTYLE AND SOCIAL RISK FACTORS |
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Tobacco
Cigarette smoking causes approximately 30 percent of all cancer deaths in the United States.23 In addition to lung cancer, tobacco use causes cancers of the lip, oral cavity, larynx, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, liver, kidney, urinary bladder, uterine cervix, and myeloid leukemia.24
African-American men aged 18 and above, have a higher prevalence of current cigarette smoking than white men, whereas the opposite is true in women (Figure 8A
). In general, African Americans begin smoking regularly at an older age and smoke fewer cigarettes per day than do whites. However, African Americans have higher blood levels of cotinine, the major metabolite of nicotine, even when smoking the same number of cigarettes than whites, perhaps because each cigarette is smoked more intensively. The use of cigarettes with higher machine-measured yields of tar and nicotine is more common in African Americans than in whites. These brands are heavily marketed to African-American communities by the tobacco industry.
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| DATA LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES |
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Our estimates are projected from the most recent data available on incidence and mortality; however, available data are three- to four-years old. Unanticipated changes that may have occurred during the last three to four years are not captured by our modeling efforts. Finally, our estimates on cancer incidence rates are based on locations participating in the SEER program, which may not represent the entire United States.
The behavior data used in this report were derived from the BRFSS, YRBSS, and NHIS. These are state and national sources for behavioral data from population-based surveys. Participants self-reported information was used to derive estimates of behavior. No attempts were made to validate the self-reports. Adjustments for sample selection and non-response were made in the calculation of the estimates.
Despite these limitations, our estimates highlight the disproportionate burden of cancer in African Americans, which may, in part, be related to unequal access to medical care and differences in the receipt of treatment. Increased efforts to alleviate economic disparities and increase access to high-quality medical care along with culturally appropriate community-based interventions that affect healthy behavioral changes can help lessen the burden of cancer in African Americans.
| Footnotes |
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