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Dr. Jemal is Strategic Director, Cancer Occurrence, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Ms. Siegel is Manager, Surveillance Information Services, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Ward is Managing Director, Surveillance Research, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Murray is Manager, Surveillance Data Systems, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Xu is Analyst, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD.
Dr. Thun is Vice President, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
This article is available online at http://CAonline.AmCancerSoc.org
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Estimated New Cancer Cases
The precise number of cancer cases diagnosed each year in the nation and in every state is unknown because complete cancer registration has not yet been achieved in some states. Since the American Cancer Society (ACS) began producing estimates of new cancer cases in the current year, the method has been refined several times to take advantage of improvements in data and statistical methods. Beginning with 2007, we are using a new projection method described by Pickle et al12 in an accompanying article inthis issue of CA. The new method is a spatio-temporal model based on incidence data from 1995 through 2003 from 41 states that met NAACCR's high-quality data standard for incidence, covering about 86% of the US population. This contrasts with the previous quadratic autoregressive model based on incidence data from the nine oldest SEER registries, covering about 10% of the US population. Furthermore, the new method considers geographic variations in socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, medical settings, and cancer screening behaviors as predictors of incidence, and accounts for expected delays in case reporting.
Estimated Cancer Deaths
We used the state-space prediction method13 to estimate the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the United States and in each state in the year 2007. Projections are based on underlying cause-of-death from death certificates as reported to the NCHS.1 This model projects the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2007 based on the number that occurred each year from 1969 to 2004 in the United States and in each state separately.
Other Statistics
We provide mortality statistics for the leading causes of death as well as deaths from cancer in the year 2004. Causes of death for 2004 were coded and classified according to ICD-10.8 This report also provides updated statistics on trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates, the probability of developing cancer, and 5-year relative survival rates for selected cancer sites based on data from 1975 through 2003.3 All age-adjusted incidence and death rates are standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 population.
The long-term incidence rates and trends (1975 to 2003) are adjusted for delays in reporting where possible. Delayed reporting affects the most recent 1 to 3 years of incidence data (in this case, 2001 to 2003), especially for cancers such as melanoma and prostate that are frequently diagnosed in outpatient settings. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) has developed a method to account for expected reporting delays in SEER registries for all cancer sites combined and several specific cancer sites when long-term incidence trends are analyzed.14 Delay-adjusted trends provide a more accurate assessment of trends in the most recent years for which data are available.
| SELECTED FINDINGS |
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Expected Number of New Cancer Deaths
Table 1 also shows the expected number of deaths from cancer projected for 2007 for men, women, and both sexes combined. It is estimated that about 559,650 Americans will die from cancer, corresponding to over 1,500 deaths per day. Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colon and rectum in men, and cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colon and rectum in women continue to be the most common fatal cancers. These four cancers account for half of the total cancer deaths among men and women (Figure 1). Lung cancer surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death in women in 1987. Lung cancer is expected to account for 26% of all female cancer deaths in 2007. Table 3 provides the estimated number of cancer deaths in 2007 by state for selected cancer sites.
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Death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased by 1.6% per year from 1993 to 2003 in males and by 0.8% per year in females from 1992 to 2003. Mortality rates have continued to decrease across all four major cancer sites in men and in women, except for female lung cancer in which rates continued to increase by 0.3% per year from 1995 to 2003 (Table 5).
Table 6 shows the contribution of individual cancer sites to the total decrease in overall cancer death rates. Death rates from all cancers combined peaked in 1990 for men and in 1991 for women. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates from cancer decreased by 16.3% among men and by 8.5% among women. Among men, reduction in death rates from lung, prostate, and colorectal cancers accounts for about 80% of the decrease in cancer death rates, while reduction in death rates from breast and colorectal cancers accounts for over 60% of the decrease among women. Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women alone account for nearly 40% of the sex-specific decreases in cancer death rates. The decrease in lung cancer death rates among men is due to reduction in tobacco use over the past 40 years, while the decrease in death rates from female breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer largely reflects improvements in early detection and treatment. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates increased substantially for lung cancer in women and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in men.
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| CANCER OCCURRENCE BY RACE/ETHNICITY |
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Trends in cancer incidence can only be adjusted for delayed reporting in Whites and African Americans, and not in other racial and ethnic subgroups, because long-term incidence data required for delay adjustment are available only for Whites and African Americans. From 1995 to 2003, sex-specific incidence rates for all cancer sites combined, not adjusted for delayed reporting, have stabilized, except for African American and Hispanic men, in whom rates decreased by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. In contrast, death rates from cancer significantly decreased in each racial and ethnic group, with larger decreases in men than in women.3
Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer
The lifetime probability of developing cancer is higher for men (45%) than for women (38%) (Table 12). However, because of the relatively early age of breast cancer onset, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer before age 60 years. It is noteworthy that these estimates are based on the average experience of the general population and may over- or underestimate individual risk because of differences in exposure and/or genetic susceptibility.
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| CANCER IN CHILDREN |
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| LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES |
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| REFERENCES |
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V. C. Daniel, L. Marchionni, J. S. Hierman, J. T. Rhodes, W. L. Devereux, C. M. Rudin, R. Yung, G. Parmigiani, M. Dorsch, C. D. Peacock, et al. A Primary Xenograft Model of Small-Cell Lung Cancer Reveals Irreversible Changes in Gene Expression Imposed by Culture In vitro Cancer Res., April 15, 2009; 69(8): 3364 - 3373. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. Hibi, T. Mori, M. Fukuma, K. Yamazaki, A. Hashiguchi, T. Yamada, M. Tanabe, K. Aiura, T. Kawakami, A. Ogiwara, et al. Synuclein-{gamma} Is Closely Involved in Perineural Invasion and Distant Metastasis in Mouse Models and Is a Novel Prognostic Factor in Pancreatic Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., April 15, 2009; 15(8): 2864 - 2871. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. Terasawa, J. Lau, S. Bardet, O. Couturier, T. Hotta, M. Hutchings, T. Nihashi, and H. Nagai Fluorine-18-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography for Interim Response Assessment of Advanced-Stage Hodgkin's Lymphoma and Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: A Systematic Review J. Clin. Oncol., April 10, 2009; 27(11): 1906 - 1914. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. A. Iacobuzio-Donahue, B. Fu, S. Yachida, M. Luo, H. Abe, C. M. Henderson, F. Vilardell, Z. Wang, J. W. Keller, P. Banerjee, et al. DPC4 Gene Status of the Primary Carcinoma Correlates With Patterns of Failure in Patients With Pancreatic Cancer J. Clin. Oncol., April 10, 2009; 27(11): 1806 - 1813. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H. Ludwig, R. Hajek, E. Tothova, J. Drach, Z. Adam, B. Labar, M. Egyed, I. Spicka, H. Gisslinger, R. Greil, et al. Thalidomide-dexamethasone compared with melphalan-prednisolone in elderly patients with multiple myeloma Blood, April 9, 2009; 113(15): 3435 - 3442. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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F. Farjah, D. R. Flum, T. K. Varghese Jr, R. G. Symons, and D. E. Wood Surgeon Specialty and Long-Term Survival After Pulmonary Resection for Lung Cancer Ann. Thorac. Surg., April 1, 2009; 87(4): 995 - 1006. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. Applebaum, T. N. Ruhlen, F. R. Kronenberg, C. Hayes, and E. S. Peters Oral Cancer Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices: A Survey of Dentists and Primary Care Physicians in Massachusetts J Am Dent Assoc, April 1, 2009; 140(4): 461 - 467. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Radecki Breitkopf and H. C. Pearson A Theory-based Approach to Understanding Follow-up of Abnormal Pap Tests J Health Psychol, April 1, 2009; 14(3): 361 - 371. [Abstract] [PDF] |
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Q. Sun, C. Liu, H. Zhong, B. Zhong, H. Xu, W. Shen, and D. Wang Multi-center Phase II Trial of Weekly Paclitaxel Plus Cisplatin Combination Chemotherapy in Patients with Advanced Gastric and Gastro-esophageal Cancer Jpn. J. Clin. Oncol., April 1, 2009; 39(4): 237 - 243. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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U. Kuzmanov, N. Jiang, C. R. Smith, A. Soosaipillai, and E. P. Diamandis Differential N-glycosylation of Kallikrein 6 Derived from Ovarian Cancer Cells or the Central Nervous System Mol. Cell. Proteomics, April 1, 2009; 8(4): 791 - 798. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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X. Dong, L. Jiao, Y. Li, D. B. Evans, H. Wang, K. R. Hess, J. L. Abbruzzese, and D. Li Significant Associations of Mismatch Repair Gene Polymorphisms With Clinical Outcome of Pancreatic Cancer J. Clin. Oncol., April 1, 2009; 27(10): 1592 - 1599. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. C. Vinikoor, M. D. Long, T. O. Keku, C. F. Martin, J. A. Galanko, and R. S. Sandler The Association between Diabetes, Insulin Use, and Colorectal Cancer among Whites and African Americans Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., April 1, 2009; 18(4): 1239 - 1242. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Sano, S. Choi, Z. L. Milas, G. Zhou, C. E. Galer, Y.-W. Su, M. Gule, M. Zhao, Z. Zhu, and J. N. Myers The Effect of Combination Anti-Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor and Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor 2 Targeted Therapy on Lymph Node Metastasis: A Study in an Orthotopic Nude Mouse Model of Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oral Tongue Arch Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg, April 1, 2009; 135(4): 411 - 420. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. H. Lee, E. L. Rosen, and D. A. Mankoff The Role of Radiotracer Imaging in the Diagnosis and Management of Patients with Breast Cancer: Part 1--Overview, Detection, and Staging J. Nucl. Med., April 1, 2009; 50(4): 569 - 581. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. J. Wilson, K. C. Nannuru, and R. K. Singh Cathepsin G Recruits Osteoclast Precursors via Proteolytic Activation of Protease-Activated Receptor-1 Cancer Res., April 1, 2009; 69(7): 3188 - 3195. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. METZGER, D. VALLBOHMER, C. MULLER-TIDOW, H. HIGASHI, E. BOLLSCHWEILER, U. WARNECKE-EBERZ, J. BRABENDER, S. E. BALDUS, H. XI, W. E. BERDEL, et al. Increased Human Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase (hTERT) mRNA Expression but not Telomerase Activity is Related to Survival in Curatively Resected Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Anticancer Res, April 1, 2009; 29(4): 1157 - 1162. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. S. Hsu, C. R. Acharya, B. S. Balakumaran, R. F. Riedel, M. K. Kim, M. Stevenson, S. Tuchman, S. Mukherjee, W. Barry, H. K. Dressman, et al. Characterizing the developmental pathways TTF-1, NKX2-8, and PAX9 in lung cancer PNAS, March 31, 2009; 106(13): 5312 - 5317. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. Mutter, B. Lu, D. P. Carbone, I. Csiki, L. Moretti, D. H. Johnson, J. D. Morrow, A. B. Sandler, Y. Shyr, F. Ye, et al. A Phase II Study of Celecoxib in Combination with Paclitaxel, Carboplatin, and Radiotherapy for Patients with Inoperable Stage IIIA/B Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., March 15, 2009; 15(6): 2158 - 2165. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. S. Ko, A. H. Zea, B. I. Rini, J. L. Ireland, P. Elson, P. Cohen, A. Golshayan, P. A. Rayman, L. Wood, J. Garcia, et al. Sunitinib Mediates Reversal of Myeloid-Derived Suppressor Cell Accumulation in Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients Clin. Cancer Res., March 15, 2009; 15(6): 2148 - 2157. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. W. Duiker, E. G.E. de Vries, D. Mahalingam, G. J. Meersma, W. Boersma-van Ek, H. Hollema, M. N. Lub-de Hooge, G. M. van Dam, R. H. Cool, W. J. Quax, et al. Enhanced Antitumor Efficacy of a DR5-Specific TRAIL Variant over Recombinant Human TRAIL in a Bioluminescent Ovarian Cancer Xenograft Model Clin. Cancer Res., March 15, 2009; 15(6): 2048 - 2057. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Larghi, E. C. Verna, P. G. Lecca, and G. Costamagna Screening for Pancreatic Cancer in High-Risk Individuals: A Call for Endoscopic Ultrasound Clin. Cancer Res., March 15, 2009; 15(6): 1907 - 1914. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Y. Lai, P. Koppikar, S. M. Thomas, E. E. Childs, A. M. Egloff, R. R. Seethala, B. F. Branstetter, W. E. Gooding, A. Muthukrishnan, J. M. Mountz, et al. Intratumoral Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Antisense DNA Therapy in Head and Neck Cancer: First Human Application and Potential Antitumor Mechanisms J. Clin. Oncol., March 10, 2009; 27(8): 1235 - 1242. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. W. Friedberg, M. D. Taylor, J. R. Cerhan, C. R. Flowers, H. Dillon, C. M. Farber, E. S. Rogers, J. D. Hainsworth, E. K. Wong, J. M. Vose, et al. Follicular Lymphoma in the United States: First Report of the National LymphoCare Study J. Clin. Oncol., March 10, 2009; 27(8): 1202 - 1208. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. J. Inge, K. D. Coon, M. A. Smith, and R. M. Bremner Expression of LKB1 tumor suppressor in non-small cell lung cancer determines sensitivity to 2-deoxyglucose. J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg., March 1, 2009; 137(3): 580 - 586. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. J. Cerfolio, A. S. Bryant, A. A. Talati, R. M. Cerfolio, and T. S. Winokur Change in maximum standardized uptake value on repeat positron emission tomography after chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal cancer identifies complete responders. J. Thorac. Cardiovasc. Surg., March 1, 2009; 137(3): 605 - 609. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. A Boorjian, H. V Heemers, I. Frank, S. A Farmer, L. J Schmidt, T. J Sebo, and D. J Tindall Expression and significance of androgen receptor coactivators in urothelial carcinoma of the bladder Endocr. Relat. Cancer, March 1, 2009; 16(1): 123 - 137. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Gaikwad, J. K Wolf, J. Brown, L. M Ramondetta, and J. A Smith In vitro evaluation of the effects of gefitinib on the cytotoxic activity of selected anticancer agents in a panel of human endometrial cancer cell lines Journal of Oncology Pharmacy Practice, March 1, 2009; 15(1): 35 - 44. [Abstract] [PDF] |
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G. Lin, K.-K. Ng, C.-J. Chang, J.-J. Wang, K.-C. Ho, T.-C. Yen, T.-I Wu, C.-C. Wang, Y.-R. Chen, Y.-T. Huang, et al. Myometrial Invasion in Endometrial Cancer: Diagnostic Accuracy of Diffusion-weighted 3.0-T MR Imaging--Initial Experience Radiology, March 1, 2009; 250(3): 784 - 792. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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B. Sen, B. Saigal, N. Parikh, G. Gallick, and F. M. Johnson Sustained Src Inhibition Results in Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 3 (STAT3) Activation and Cancer Cell Survival via Altered Janus-Activated Kinase-STAT3 Binding Cancer Res., March 1, 2009; 69(5): 1958 - 1965. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. J. Riley, K. P. Engelhardt, J. W. Saldanha, W. Qi, L. S. Cooke, Y. Zhu, S. T. Narayan, K. Shakalya, K. D. Croce, I. G. Georgiev, et al. Design and Activity of a Murine and Humanized Anti-CEACAM6 Single-Chain Variable Fragment in the Treatment of Pancreatic Cancer Cancer Res., March 1, 2009; 69(5): 1933 - 1940. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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AMERICAN ACADEMY OF PEDIATRICS Section on Hematolo Long-term Follow-up Care for Pediatric Cancer Survivors Pediatrics, March 1, 2009; 123(3): 906 - 915. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. Sunami, M. Shinozaki, C. S. Higano, R. Wollman, T. B. Dorff, S. J. Tucker, S. R. Martinez, F. R. Singer, and D. S.B. Hoon Multimarker Circulating DNA Assay for Assessing Blood of Prostate Cancer Patients Clin. Chem., March 1, 2009; 55(3): 559 - 567. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Tanemura, A. M. Terando, M.-S. Sim, A. Q. van Hoesel, M. F.G. de Maat, D. L. Morton, and D. S.B. Hoon CpG Island Methylator Phenotype Predicts Progression of Malignant Melanoma Clin. Cancer Res., March 1, 2009; 15(5): 1801 - 1807. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. D. Sequist, A. M. Zaslavsky, R. Marshall, R. H. Fletcher, and J. Z. Ayanian Patient and Physician Reminders to Promote Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial Arch Intern Med, February 23, 2009; 169(4): 364 - 371. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. A. Waldman, T. Hyslop, S. Schulz, A. Barkun, K. Nielsen, J. Haaf, C. Bonaccorso, Y. Li, and D. S. Weinberg Association of GUCY2C Expression in Lymph Nodes With Time to Recurrence and Disease-Free Survival in pN0 Colorectal Cancer JAMA, February 18, 2009; 301(7): 745 - 752. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Delloye-Bourgeois, E. Brambilla, M.-M. Coissieux, C. Guenebeaud, R. Pedeux, V. Firlej, F. Cabon, C. Brambilla, P. Mehlen, and A. Bernet Interference With Netrin-1 and Tumor Cell Death in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer J Natl Cancer Inst, February 18, 2009; 101(4): 237 - 247. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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