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Dr. Jemal is Strategic Director, Cancer Occurrence, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Ms. Siegel is Manager, Surveillance Information Services, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Ward is Managing Director, Surveillance Research, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Murray is Manager, Surveillance Data Systems, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Xu is Analyst, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD.
Dr. Thun is Vice President, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
This article is available online at http://CAonline.AmCancerSoc.org
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Estimated New Cancer Cases
The precise number of cancer cases diagnosed each year in the nation and in every state is unknown because complete cancer registration has not yet been achieved in some states. Since the American Cancer Society (ACS) began producing estimates of new cancer cases in the current year, the method has been refined several times to take advantage of improvements in data and statistical methods. Beginning with 2007, we are using a new projection method described by Pickle et al12 in an accompanying article inthis issue of CA. The new method is a spatio-temporal model based on incidence data from 1995 through 2003 from 41 states that met NAACCR's high-quality data standard for incidence, covering about 86% of the US population. This contrasts with the previous quadratic autoregressive model based on incidence data from the nine oldest SEER registries, covering about 10% of the US population. Furthermore, the new method considers geographic variations in socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, medical settings, and cancer screening behaviors as predictors of incidence, and accounts for expected delays in case reporting.
Estimated Cancer Deaths
We used the state-space prediction method13 to estimate the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the United States and in each state in the year 2007. Projections are based on underlying cause-of-death from death certificates as reported to the NCHS.1 This model projects the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2007 based on the number that occurred each year from 1969 to 2004 in the United States and in each state separately.
Other Statistics
We provide mortality statistics for the leading causes of death as well as deaths from cancer in the year 2004. Causes of death for 2004 were coded and classified according to ICD-10.8 This report also provides updated statistics on trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates, the probability of developing cancer, and 5-year relative survival rates for selected cancer sites based on data from 1975 through 2003.3 All age-adjusted incidence and death rates are standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 population.
The long-term incidence rates and trends (1975 to 2003) are adjusted for delays in reporting where possible. Delayed reporting affects the most recent 1 to 3 years of incidence data (in this case, 2001 to 2003), especially for cancers such as melanoma and prostate that are frequently diagnosed in outpatient settings. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) has developed a method to account for expected reporting delays in SEER registries for all cancer sites combined and several specific cancer sites when long-term incidence trends are analyzed.14 Delay-adjusted trends provide a more accurate assessment of trends in the most recent years for which data are available.
| SELECTED FINDINGS |
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Expected Number of New Cancer Deaths
Table 1 also shows the expected number of deaths from cancer projected for 2007 for men, women, and both sexes combined. It is estimated that about 559,650 Americans will die from cancer, corresponding to over 1,500 deaths per day. Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colon and rectum in men, and cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colon and rectum in women continue to be the most common fatal cancers. These four cancers account for half of the total cancer deaths among men and women (Figure 1). Lung cancer surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death in women in 1987. Lung cancer is expected to account for 26% of all female cancer deaths in 2007. Table 3 provides the estimated number of cancer deaths in 2007 by state for selected cancer sites.
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Death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased by 1.6% per year from 1993 to 2003 in males and by 0.8% per year in females from 1992 to 2003. Mortality rates have continued to decrease across all four major cancer sites in men and in women, except for female lung cancer in which rates continued to increase by 0.3% per year from 1995 to 2003 (Table 5).
Table 6 shows the contribution of individual cancer sites to the total decrease in overall cancer death rates. Death rates from all cancers combined peaked in 1990 for men and in 1991 for women. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates from cancer decreased by 16.3% among men and by 8.5% among women. Among men, reduction in death rates from lung, prostate, and colorectal cancers accounts for about 80% of the decrease in cancer death rates, while reduction in death rates from breast and colorectal cancers accounts for over 60% of the decrease among women. Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women alone account for nearly 40% of the sex-specific decreases in cancer death rates. The decrease in lung cancer death rates among men is due to reduction in tobacco use over the past 40 years, while the decrease in death rates from female breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer largely reflects improvements in early detection and treatment. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates increased substantially for lung cancer in women and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in men.
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| CANCER OCCURRENCE BY RACE/ETHNICITY |
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Trends in cancer incidence can only be adjusted for delayed reporting in Whites and African Americans, and not in other racial and ethnic subgroups, because long-term incidence data required for delay adjustment are available only for Whites and African Americans. From 1995 to 2003, sex-specific incidence rates for all cancer sites combined, not adjusted for delayed reporting, have stabilized, except for African American and Hispanic men, in whom rates decreased by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. In contrast, death rates from cancer significantly decreased in each racial and ethnic group, with larger decreases in men than in women.3
Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer
The lifetime probability of developing cancer is higher for men (45%) than for women (38%) (Table 12). However, because of the relatively early age of breast cancer onset, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer before age 60 years. It is noteworthy that these estimates are based on the average experience of the general population and may over- or underestimate individual risk because of differences in exposure and/or genetic susceptibility.
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| CANCER IN CHILDREN |
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| LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES |
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| REFERENCES |
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P. Boyle and O. W. Brawley Prostate Cancer: Current Evidence Weighs Against Population Screening CA Cancer J Clin, July 1, 2009; 59(4): 220 - 224. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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N. Bandi, S. Zbinden, M. Gugger, M. Arnold, V. Kocher, L. Hasan, A. Kappeler, T. Brunner, and E. Vassella miR-15a and miR-16 Are Implicated in Cell Cycle Regulation in a Rb-Dependent Manner and Are Frequently Deleted or Down-regulated in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Cancer Res., July 1, 2009; 69(13): 5553 - 5559. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S.-H. Kim and S. V. Singh D,L-Sulforaphane causes transcriptional repression of androgen receptor in human prostate cancer cells Mol. Cancer Ther., July 1, 2009; 8(7): 1946 - 1954. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. K. McElroy, S. Kaushal, H. S. Tran Cao, A.R. Moossa, M. A. Talamini, R. M. Hoffman, and M. Bouvet Upregulation of thrombospondin-1 and angiogenesis in an aggressive human pancreatic cancer cell line selected for high metastasis Mol. Cancer Ther., July 1, 2009; 8(7): 1779 - 1786. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. L. Russo, K. Jedlicka, M. Wernick, D. McNally, M. Kirk, M. Sproull, S. Smith, U. Shankavaram, A. Kaushal, W. D. Figg, et al. Urine Analysis and Protein Networking Identify Met as a Marker of Metastatic Prostate Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., July 1, 2009; 15(13): 4292 - 4298. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. T. Vahdat, B. Pruitt, C. J. Fabian, R. R. Rivera, D. A. Smith, E. Tan-Chiu, J. Wright, A. R. Tan, N. A. DaCosta, E. Chuang, et al. Phase II Study of Eribulin Mesylate, a Halichondrin B Analog, in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated With an Anthracycline and a Taxane J. Clin. Oncol., June 20, 2009; 27(18): 2954 - 2961. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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F. D. Ferris, E. Bruera, N. Cherny, C. Cummings, D. Currow, D. Dudgeon, N. JanJan, F. Strasser, C. F. von Gunten, and J. H. Von Roenn Palliative Cancer Care a Decade Later: Accomplishments, the Need, Next Steps--From the American Society of Clinical Oncology J. Clin. Oncol., June 20, 2009; 27(18): 3052 - 3058. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Li, H. Huang, L. Sun, M. Yang, C. Pan, W. Chen, D. Wu, Z. Lin, C. Zeng, Y. Yao, et al. MiR-21 Indicates Poor Prognosis in Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinomas as an Apoptosis Inhibitor Clin. Cancer Res., June 15, 2009; 15(12): 3998 - 4008. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Yee, M. D. Sadar, D. D. Sin, M. Kuzyk, L. Xing, J. Kondra, A. McWilliams, S.F. P. Man, and S. Lam Connective Tissue-Activating Peptide III: A Novel Blood Biomarker for Early Lung Cancer Detection J. Clin. Oncol., June 10, 2009; 27(17): 2787 - 2792. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Tomida, T. Takeuchi, Y. Shimada, C. Arima, K. Matsuo, T. Mitsudomi, Y. Yatabe, and T. Takahashi Relapse-Related Molecular Signature in Lung Adenocarcinomas Identifies Patients With Dismal Prognosis J. Clin. Oncol., June 10, 2009; 27(17): 2793 - 2799. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. D'Costa, D. Emslie, D. Metcalf, G. K. Smyth, A. Karnowski, A. Kallies, S. L. Nutt, and L. M. Corcoran Blimp1 is limiting for transformation in a mouse plasmacytoma model Blood, June 4, 2009; 113(23): 5911 - 5919. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. Takai, S. Kanaoka, K.-i. Yoshida, Y. Hamaya, M. Ikuma, N. Miura, H. Sugimura, M. Kajimura, and A. Hishida Fecal Cyclooxygenase 2 Plus Matrix Metalloproteinase 7 mRNA Assays as a Marker for Colorectal Cancer Screening Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., June 1, 2009; 18(6): 1888 - 1893. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. Petralia, L. Preda, S. Raimondi, G. D'Andrea, P. Summers, G. Giugliano, F. Chiesa, and M. Bellomi Intra- and Interobserver Agreement and Impact of Arterial Input Selection in Perfusion CT Measurements Performed in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Upper Aerodigestive Tract AJNR Am. J. Neuroradiol., June 1, 2009; 30(6): 1107 - 1115. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Y.-T. Huang, R. S. Heist, L. R. Chirieac, X. Lin, V. Skaug, S. Zienolddiny, A. Haugen, M. C. Wu, Z. Wang, L. Su, et al. Genome-Wide Analysis of Survival in Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer J. Clin. Oncol., June 1, 2009; 27(16): 2660 - 2667. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. K. Philips, S. Halabi, B. L. Sanford, D. Bajorin, E. J. Small, and for the Cancer and Leukemia Group B A phase II trial of cisplatin (C), gemcitabine (G) and gefitinib for advanced urothelial tract carcinoma: results of Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) 90102 Ann. Onc., June 1, 2009; 20(6): 1074 - 1079. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. T. Dance-Barnes, N. D. Kock, J. E. Moore, E. Y. Lin, L. J. Mosley, R. B. D'Agostino Jr, T. P. McCoy, A. J. Townsend, and M. S. Miller Lung tumor promotion by curcumin Carcinogenesis, June 1, 2009; 30(6): 1016 - 1023. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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B. C. Christensen, B. J. Moyer, M. Avissar, L. G. Ouellet, S. L. Plaza, M. D. McClean, C. J. Marsit, and K. T. Kelsey A let-7 microRNA-binding site polymorphism in the KRAS 3' UTR is associated with reduced survival in oral cancers Carcinogenesis, June 1, 2009; 30(6): 1003 - 1007. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Y.-W. HUANG, L.-S. WANG, M. K. DOWD, P. J. WAN, and Y. C. LIN (-)-Gossypol Reduces Invasiveness in Metastatic Prostate Cancer Cells Anticancer Res, June 1, 2009; 29(6): 2179 - 2188. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. C. Glockner, M. Dhir, J. M. Yi, K. E. McGarvey, L. Van Neste, J. Louwagie, T. A. Chan, W. Kleeberger, A. P. de Bruine, K. M. Smits, et al. Methylation of TFPI2 in Stool DNA: A Potential Novel Biomarker for the Detection of Colorectal Cancer Cancer Res., June 1, 2009; 69(11): 4691 - 4699. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Y. Matsuo, P. M. Campbell, R. A. Brekken, B. Sung, M. M. Ouellette, J. B. Fleming, B. B. Aggarwal, C. J. Der, and S. Guha K-Ras Promotes Angiogenesis Mediated by Immortalized Human Pancreatic Epithelial Cells through Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinase Signaling Pathways Mol. Cancer Res., June 1, 2009; 7(6): 799 - 808. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. C. Mavropoulos, W. C. Buschemeyer III, A. K. Tewari, D. Rokhfeld, M. Pollak, Y. Zhao, P. G. Febbo, P. Cohen, D. Hwang, G. Devi, et al. The Effects of Varying Dietary Carbohydrate and Fat Content on Survival in a Murine LNCaP Prostate Cancer Xenograft Model Cancer Prevention Research, June 1, 2009; 2(6): 557 - 565. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Papadaki, D. Mavroudis, M. Trypaki, A. Koutsopoulos, E. Stathopoulos, D. Hatzidaki, E. Tsakalaki, V. Georgoulias, and J. Souglakos Tumoral Expression of TXR1 and TSP1 Predicts Overall Survival of Patients with Lung Adenocarcinoma Treated with First-line Docetaxel-Gemcitabine Regimen Clin. Cancer Res., June 1, 2009; 15(11): 3827 - 3833. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. W. Woodfield, M. J. Hitchler, Y. Chen, F. E. Domann, and R. J. Weigel Interaction of TFAP2C with the Estrogen Receptor-{alpha} Promoter Is Controlled by Chromatin Structure Clin. Cancer Res., June 1, 2009; 15(11): 3672 - 3679. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. S. Mangala, V. Zuzel, R. Schmandt, E. S. Leshane, J. B. Halder, G. N. Armaiz-Pena, W. A. Spannuth, T. Tanaka, M. M.K. Shahzad, Y. G. Lin, et al. Therapeutic Targeting of ATP7B in Ovarian Carcinoma Clin. Cancer Res., June 1, 2009; 15(11): 3770 - 3780. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. M. Messing, R. Madeb, C. Feng, L. Stephenson, K. W. Gilchrist, T. Young, and J. Gee Grade and Stage at Presentation Do Not Predict Mortality in Patients With Bladder Cancer Who Survive Their Disease J. Clin. Oncol., May 20, 2009; 27(15): 2443 - 2449. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. B. Natale, D. Bodkin, R. Govindan, B. G. Sleckman, N. A. Rizvi, A. Capo, P. Germonpre, W. E.E. Eberhardt, P. K. Stockman, S. J. Kennedy, et al. Vandetanib Versus Gefitinib in Patients With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Results From a Two-Part, Double-Blind, Randomized Phase II Study J. Clin. Oncol., May 20, 2009; 27(15): 2523 - 2529. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Geismann, M. Morscheck, D. Koch, F. Bergmann, H. Ungefroren, A. Arlt, M.-S. Tsao, M. G. Bachem, P. Altevogt, B. Sipos, et al. Up-regulation of L1CAM in Pancreatic Duct Cells Is Transforming Growth Factor {beta}1- and Slug-Dependent: Role in Malignant Transformation of Pancreatic Cancer Cancer Res., May 15, 2009; 69(10): 4517 - 4526. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. W. Rahman, S. Banerjee, S. Ali, A. Ahmad, Z. Wang, D. Kong, and W. A. Sakr 3,3'-Diindolylmethane Enhances Taxotere-Induced Apoptosis in Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer Cells through Survivin Down-regulation Cancer Res., May 15, 2009; 69(10): 4468 - 4475. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. R. Loebinger, A. Eddaoudi, D. Davies, and S. M. Janes Mesenchymal Stem Cell Delivery of TRAIL Can Eliminate Metastatic Cancer Cancer Res., May 15, 2009; 69(10): 4134 - 4142. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Q. Zhang, B. T. Helfand, T. L. Jang, L. J. Zhu, L. Chen, X. J. Yang, J. Kozlowski, N. Smith, S. D. Kundu, G. Yang, et al. Nuclear Factor-{kappa}B-Mediated Transforming Growth Factor-{beta}-Induced Expression of Vimentin Is an Independent Predictor of Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy Clin. Cancer Res., May 15, 2009; 15(10): 3557 - 3567. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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O. Tatarov, T. J. Mitchell, M. Seywright, H. Y. Leung, V. G. Brunton, and J. Edwards Src Family Kinase Activity Is Up-Regulated in Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., May 15, 2009; 15(10): 3540 - 3549. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. N. Naumov, M. B. Nilsson, T. Cascone, A. Briggs, O. Straume, L. A. Akslen, E. Lifshits, L. A. Byers, L. Xu, H.-k. Wu, et al. Combined Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor and Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Blockade Inhibits Tumor Growth in Xenograft Models of EGFR Inhibitor Resistance Clin. Cancer Res., May 15, 2009; 15(10): 3484 - 3494. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. V. Hudson, P. Ohman-Strickland, J. M. Ferrante, G. Lu-Yao, A. J. Orzano, and B. F. Crabtree Prostate-Specific Antigen Testing among the Elderly in Community-Based Family Medicine Practices J Am Board Fam Med, May 1, 2009; 22(3): 257 - 265. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. E. Guerra, M. Sherman, and K. Armstrong Diffusion of Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in Primary Care J Am Board Fam Med, May 1, 2009; 22(3): 272 - 279. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H. Cho and J.-H. Kim Lipocalin2 Expressions Correlate Significantly With Tumor Differentiation in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer J. Histochem. Cytochem., May 1, 2009; 57(5): 513 - 521. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. H. Lee, E. L. Rosen, and D. A. Mankoff The Role of Radiotracer Imaging in the Diagnosis and Management of Patients with Breast Cancer: Part 2--Response to Therapy, Other Indications, and Future Directions J. Nucl. Med., May 1, 2009; 50(5): 738 - 748. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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