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Dr. Jemal is Strategic Director, Cancer Occurrence, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Ms. Siegel is Manager, Surveillance Information Services, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Ward is Managing Director, Surveillance Research, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Murray is Manager, Surveillance Data Systems, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Mr. Xu is Analyst, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD.
Dr. Thun is Vice President, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
This article is available online at http://CAonline.AmCancerSoc.org
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Estimated New Cancer Cases
The precise number of cancer cases diagnosed each year in the nation and in every state is unknown because complete cancer registration has not yet been achieved in some states. Since the American Cancer Society (ACS) began producing estimates of new cancer cases in the current year, the method has been refined several times to take advantage of improvements in data and statistical methods. Beginning with 2007, we are using a new projection method described by Pickle et al12 in an accompanying article inthis issue of CA. The new method is a spatio-temporal model based on incidence data from 1995 through 2003 from 41 states that met NAACCR's high-quality data standard for incidence, covering about 86% of the US population. This contrasts with the previous quadratic autoregressive model based on incidence data from the nine oldest SEER registries, covering about 10% of the US population. Furthermore, the new method considers geographic variations in socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, medical settings, and cancer screening behaviors as predictors of incidence, and accounts for expected delays in case reporting.
Estimated Cancer Deaths
We used the state-space prediction method13 to estimate the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the United States and in each state in the year 2007. Projections are based on underlying cause-of-death from death certificates as reported to the NCHS.1 This model projects the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2007 based on the number that occurred each year from 1969 to 2004 in the United States and in each state separately.
Other Statistics
We provide mortality statistics for the leading causes of death as well as deaths from cancer in the year 2004. Causes of death for 2004 were coded and classified according to ICD-10.8 This report also provides updated statistics on trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates, the probability of developing cancer, and 5-year relative survival rates for selected cancer sites based on data from 1975 through 2003.3 All age-adjusted incidence and death rates are standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 population.
The long-term incidence rates and trends (1975 to 2003) are adjusted for delays in reporting where possible. Delayed reporting affects the most recent 1 to 3 years of incidence data (in this case, 2001 to 2003), especially for cancers such as melanoma and prostate that are frequently diagnosed in outpatient settings. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) has developed a method to account for expected reporting delays in SEER registries for all cancer sites combined and several specific cancer sites when long-term incidence trends are analyzed.14 Delay-adjusted trends provide a more accurate assessment of trends in the most recent years for which data are available.
| SELECTED FINDINGS |
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Expected Number of New Cancer Deaths
Table 1 also shows the expected number of deaths from cancer projected for 2007 for men, women, and both sexes combined. It is estimated that about 559,650 Americans will die from cancer, corresponding to over 1,500 deaths per day. Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colon and rectum in men, and cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colon and rectum in women continue to be the most common fatal cancers. These four cancers account for half of the total cancer deaths among men and women (Figure 1). Lung cancer surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death in women in 1987. Lung cancer is expected to account for 26% of all female cancer deaths in 2007. Table 3 provides the estimated number of cancer deaths in 2007 by state for selected cancer sites.
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Death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased by 1.6% per year from 1993 to 2003 in males and by 0.8% per year in females from 1992 to 2003. Mortality rates have continued to decrease across all four major cancer sites in men and in women, except for female lung cancer in which rates continued to increase by 0.3% per year from 1995 to 2003 (Table 5).
Table 6 shows the contribution of individual cancer sites to the total decrease in overall cancer death rates. Death rates from all cancers combined peaked in 1990 for men and in 1991 for women. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates from cancer decreased by 16.3% among men and by 8.5% among women. Among men, reduction in death rates from lung, prostate, and colorectal cancers accounts for about 80% of the decrease in cancer death rates, while reduction in death rates from breast and colorectal cancers accounts for over 60% of the decrease among women. Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women alone account for nearly 40% of the sex-specific decreases in cancer death rates. The decrease in lung cancer death rates among men is due to reduction in tobacco use over the past 40 years, while the decrease in death rates from female breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer largely reflects improvements in early detection and treatment. Between 1990/1991 and 2003, death rates increased substantially for lung cancer in women and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in men.
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| CANCER OCCURRENCE BY RACE/ETHNICITY |
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Trends in cancer incidence can only be adjusted for delayed reporting in Whites and African Americans, and not in other racial and ethnic subgroups, because long-term incidence data required for delay adjustment are available only for Whites and African Americans. From 1995 to 2003, sex-specific incidence rates for all cancer sites combined, not adjusted for delayed reporting, have stabilized, except for African American and Hispanic men, in whom rates decreased by 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. In contrast, death rates from cancer significantly decreased in each racial and ethnic group, with larger decreases in men than in women.3
Lifetime Probability of Developing Cancer
The lifetime probability of developing cancer is higher for men (45%) than for women (38%) (Table 12). However, because of the relatively early age of breast cancer onset, women have a slightly higher probability of developing cancer before age 60 years. It is noteworthy that these estimates are based on the average experience of the general population and may over- or underestimate individual risk because of differences in exposure and/or genetic susceptibility.
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| CANCER IN CHILDREN |
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| LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES |
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| REFERENCES |
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C. A. Stidley, M. A. Picchi, S. Leng, R. Willink, R. E. Crowell, K. G. Flores, H. Kang, T. Byers, F. D. Gilliland, and S. A. Belinsky Multivitamins, Folate, and Green Vegetables Protect against Gene Promoter Methylation in the Aerodigestive Tract of Smokers Cancer Res., January 15, 2010; 70(2): 568 - 574. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L.-E Wang, Z. Hu, E. M. Sturgis, M. R. Spitz, S. S. Strom, C. I. Amos, Z. Guo, Y. Qiao, A. M. Gillenwater, J. N. Myers, et al. Reduced DNA Repair Capacity for Removing Tobacco Carcinogen-Induced DNA Adducts Contributes to Risk of Head and Neck Cancer but not Tumor Characteristics Clin. Cancer Res., January 15, 2010; 16(2): 764 - 774. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. M. Roe, A. L. Fitzpatrick, C. Xiong, W. Sieh, L. Kuller, J. P. Miller, M. M. Williams, R. Kopan, M. I. Behrens, and J. C. Morris Cancer linked to Alzheimer disease but not vascular dementia Neurology, January 12, 2010; 74(2): 106 - 112. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. A. Reed, C. N. Mayhew, A. K. McClendon, and E. S. Knudsen Unique Impact of RB Loss on Hepatic Proliferation: TUMORIGENIC STRESSES UNCOVER DISTINCT PATHWAYS OF CELL CYCLE CONTROL J. Biol. Chem., January 8, 2010; 285(2): 1089 - 1096. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H. AL-HUMADI, A. ZARROS, R. AL-SAIGH, and C. LIAPI Genetic Basis and Gene Therapy Trials for Thyroid Cancer Cancer Genomics Proteomics, January 1, 2010; 7(1): 31 - 49. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Strano, L. Ouafi, M. Baud, and M. Alifano Primary Chordoma of the Lung. Ann. Thorac. Surg., January 1, 2010; 89(1): 302 - 303. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. Korpanty, E. Smyth, L. A Sullivan, R. A Brekken, and D. N Carney Antiangiogenic therapy in lung cancer: focus on vascular endothelial growth factor pathway Exp Biol Med, January 1, 2010; 235(1): 3 - 9. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. T. Penson, D. S. Dizon, S. A. Cannistra, M. R. Roche, C. N. Krasner, S. T. Berlin, N. S. Horowitz, P. A. DiSilvestro, U. A. Matulonis, H. Lee, et al. Phase II Study of Carboplatin, Paclitaxel, and Bevacizumab With Maintenance Bevacizumab As First-Line Chemotherapy for Advanced Mullerian Tumors J. Clin. Oncol., January 1, 2010; 28(1): 154 - 159. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Yoshizawa, J. Fukuoka, S. Shimizu, K. Shilo, T. J. Franks, S. M. Hewitt, T. Fujii, C. Cordon-Cardo, J. Jen, and W. D. Travis Overexpression of Phospho-eIF4E Is Associated with Survival through AKT Pathway in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2010; 16(1): 240 - 248. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J.-W. Shin, C. Pancaro, C. F. Wang, and P. Gerner The Effects of Resiniferatoxin in an Experimental Rat Thoracotomy Model Anesth. Analg., January 1, 2010; 110(1): 228 - 232. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Pijls-Johannesma, J. P.C. Grutters, F. Verhaegen, P. Lambin, and D. De Ruysscher Do We Have Enough Evidence to Implement Particle Therapy as Standard Treatment in Lung Cancer? A Systematic Literature Review Oncologist, January 1, 2010; 15(1): 93 - 103. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. P. Quinn, S. T. Vadaparampil, J.-H. Lee, P. B. Jacobsen, G. Bepler, J. Lancaster, D. L. Keefe, and T. L. Albrecht Physician Referral for Fertility Preservation in Oncology Patients: A National Study of Practice Behaviors J. Clin. Oncol., December 10, 2009; 27(35): 5952 - 5957. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Soeda, Y. Morita-Hoshi, H. Makiyama, C. Morizane, H. Ueno, M. Ikeda, T. Okusaka, S. Yamagata, N. Takahashi, I. Hyodo, et al. Regular Dose of Gemcitabine Induces an Increase in CD14+ Monocytes and CD11c+ Dendritic Cells in Patients with Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Jpn. J. Clin. Oncol., December 1, 2009; 39(12): 797 - 806. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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N. L. Spector and K. L. Blackwell Understanding the Mechanisms Behind Trastuzumab Therapy for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Positive Breast Cancer J. Clin. Oncol., December 1, 2009; 27(34): 5838 - 5847. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Planque, V. Kulasingam, C. R. Smith, K. Reckamp, L. Goodglick, and E. P. Diamandis Identification of Five Candidate Lung Cancer Biomarkers by Proteomics Analysis of Conditioned Media of Four Lung Cancer Cell Lines Mol. Cell. Proteomics, December 1, 2009; 8(12): 2746 - 2758. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. M. Lyon, D. M. Klinge, K. C. Do, M. J. Grimes, C. L. Thomas, L. A. Damiani, T. H. March, C. A. Stidley, and S. A. Belinsky Rosiglitazone prevents the progression of preinvasive lung cancer in a murine model Carcinogenesis, December 1, 2009; 30(12): 2095 - 2099. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Chanda, T. Isayeva, S. Kumar, J. A. Hensel, A. Sawant, G. Ramaswamy, G. P. Siegal, M. S. Beatty, and S. Ponnazhagan Therapeutic Potential of Adult Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Prostate Cancer Bone Metastasis Clin. Cancer Res., December 1, 2009; 15(23): 7175 - 7185. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C.-S. Liu, C.-W. Tsai, T.-C. Hsia, R.-F. Wang, C.-J. Liu, L.-W. Hang, S.-Y. Chiang, C.-H. Wang, R.-Y. Tsai, C.-C. Lin, et al. Interaction of Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Genotype and Smoking Habit in Taiwanese Lung Cancer Patients Cancer Genomics Proteomics, November 1, 2009; 6(6): 325 - 329. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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V. Jayaprakash, M. Sullivan, M. Merzianu, N. R. Rigual, T. R. Loree, S. R. Popat, K. B. Moysich, S. Ramananda, T. Johnson, J. R. Marshall, et al. Autofluorescence-Guided Surveillance for Oral Cancer Cancer Prevention Research, November 1, 2009; 2(11): 966 - 974. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. A. Deegan, D. Murray, P. Doran, P. Ecimovic, D. C. Moriarty, and D. J. Buggy Effect of anaesthetic technique on oestrogen receptor-negative breast cancer cell function in vitro Br. J. Anaesth., November 1, 2009; 103(5): 685 - 690. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. D. Johnson CT Colonography: Coming of Age Am. J. Roentgenol., November 1, 2009; 193(5): 1239 - 1242. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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E. Ito, K. W. Yip, D. Katz, S. B. Fonseca, D. W. Hedley, S. Chow, G. W. Xu, T. E. Wood, C. Bastianutto, A. D. Schimmer, et al. Potential Use of Cetrimonium Bromide as an Apoptosis-Promoting Anticancer Agent for Head and Neck Cancer Mol. Pharmacol., November 1, 2009; 76(5): 969 - 983. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. Moretti, D. S. Yu, H. Chen, D. P. Carbone, D. H. Johnson, V. L. Keedy, J. B. Putnam Jr., A. B. Sandler, Y. Shyr, and B. Lu Prognostic Factors for Resected Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with pN2 Status: Implications for Use of Postoperative Radiotherapy Oncologist, November 1, 2009; 14(11): 1106 - 1115. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. L. Holt, M. Shipp, M. Eloubeidi, K. S. Clay, M. A. Smith-Janas, M. J. Janas, K. Britt, M. Norena, and M. N. Fouad Use of focus group data to develop recommendations for demographically segmented colorectal cancer educational strategies Health Educ. Res., October 1, 2009; 24(5): 876 - 889. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. A. Troyer, M. S. Lucia, A. P. de Bruine, R. Mendez-Meza, M. M. Baldewijns, N. Dunscomb, M. Van Engeland, T. McAskill, K. Bierau, J. Louwagie, et al. Prostate Cancer Detected by Methylated Gene Markers in Histopathologically Cancer-Negative Tissues from Men with Subsequent Positive Biopsies Cancer Epidemiol. Biomarkers Prev., October 1, 2009; 18(10): 2717 - 2722. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Mancini, E. Vergara, G. Salvatore, A. Greco, G. Troncone, A. Affuso, R. Liuzzi, P. Salerno, M. Scotto di Santolo, M. Santoro, et al. Morphological Ultrasound Microimaging of Thyroid in Living Mice Endocrinology, October 1, 2009; 150(10): 4810 - 4815. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. Peng, Y.-L. Ran, H. Hu, L. Yu, Q. Liu, Z. Zhou, Y.-M. Sun, L.-C. Sun, J. Pan, L.-X. Sun, et al. Secreted LOXL2 is a novel therapeutic target that promotes gastric cancer metastasis via the Src/FAK pathway Carcinogenesis, October 1, 2009; 30(10): 1660 - 1669. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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T. Tsujikawa, Y. Yoshida, T. Kudo, Y. Kiyono, T. Kurokawa, M. Kobayashi, T. Tsuchida, Y. Fujibayashi, F. Kotsuji, and H. Okazawa Functional Images Reflect Aggressiveness of Endometrial Carcinoma: Estrogen Receptor Expression Combined with 18F-FDG PET J. Nucl. Med., October 1, 2009; 50(10): 1598 - 1604. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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Z. Syed, S. B. Cheepala, J. N. Gill, J. Stein, C. A. Nathan, J. DiGiovanni, V. Batra, P. Adegboyega, H. E. Kleiner, and J. L. Clifford All-Trans Retinoic Acid Suppresses Stat3 Signaling during Skin Carcinogenesis Cancer Prevention Research, October 1, 2009; 2(10): 903 - 911. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Oh, B. J. Stish, D. Sachdev, H. Chen, A. Z. Dudek, and D. A. Vallera A Novel Reduced Immunogenicity Bispecific Targeted Toxin Simultaneously Recognizing Human Epidermal Growth Factor and Interleukin-4 Receptors in a Mouse Model of Metastatic Breast Carcinoma Clin. Cancer Res., October 1, 2009; 15(19): 6137 - 6147. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H. Ishiguro, K. Akimoto, Y. Nagashima, Y. Kojima, T. Sasaki, Y. Ishiguro-Imagawa, N. Nakaigawa, S. Ohno, Y. Kubota, and H. Uemura aPKC{lambda}/{iota} promotes growth of prostate cancer cells in an autocrine manner through transcriptional activation of interleukin-6 PNAS, September 22, 2009; 106(38): 16369 - 16374. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. Bellmunt, C. Theodore, T. Demkov, B. Komyakov, L. Sengelov, G. Daugaard, A. Caty, J. Carles, A. Jagiello-Gruszfeld, O. Karyakin, et al. Phase III Trial of Vinflunine Plus Best Supportive Care Compared With Best Supportive Care Alone After a Platinum-Containing Regimen in Patients With Advanced Transitional Cell Carcinoma of the Urothelial Tract J. Clin. Oncol., September 20, 2009; 27(27): 4454 - 4461. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. L. Lu-Yao, P. C. Albertsen, D. F. Moore, W. Shih, Y. Lin, R. S. DiPaola, M. J. Barry, A. Zietman, M. O'Leary, E. Walker-Corkery, et al. Outcomes of Localized Prostate Cancer Following Conservative Management JAMA, September 16, 2009; 302(11): 1202 - 1209. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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W.-Y. Kim, Q. Jin, S.-H. Oh, E. S. Kim, Y. J. Yang, D. H. Lee, L. Feng, C. Behrens, L. Prudkin, Y. E. Miller, et al. Elevated Epithelial Insulin-like Growth Factor Expression Is a Risk Factor for Lung Cancer Development Cancer Res., September 15, 2009; 69(18): 7439 - 7448. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M.-H. Lee, B. Y. Choi, J. K. Kundu, Y. K. Shin, H.-K. Na, and Y.-J. Surh Resveratrol Suppresses Growth of Human Ovarian Cancer Cells in Culture and in a Murine Xenograft Model: Eukaryotic Elongation Factor 1A2 as a Potential Target Cancer Res., September 15, 2009; 69(18): 7449 - 7458. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Krishnaswamy, R. Kanteti, J. S. Duke-Cohan, S. Loganathan, W. Liu, P. C. Ma, M. Sattler, P. A. Singleton, N. Ramnath, F. Innocenti, et al. Ethnic Differences and Functional Analysis of MET Mutations in Lung Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., September 15, 2009; 15(18): 5714 - 5723. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. R. Epis, K. M. Giles, A. Barker, T. S. Kendrick, and P. J. Leedman miR-331-3p Regulates ERBB-2 Expression and Androgen Receptor Signaling in Prostate Cancer J. Biol. Chem., September 11, 2009; 284(37): 24696 - 24704. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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F. E. Ahmed, C. D. Jeffries, P. W. Vos, G. Flake, G. J. Nuovo, D. R. Sinar, W. Naziri, and S. P. Marcuard Diagnostic MicroRNA Markers for Screening Sporadic Human Colon Cancer and Active Ulcerative Colitis in Stool and Tissue Cancer Genomics Proteomics, September 1, 2009; 6(5): 281 - 295. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. H. Blackmon, N. Shah, J. A. Roth, A. M. Correa, A. A. Vaporciyan, D. C. Rice, W. Hofstetter, G. L. Walsh, R. Benjamin, R. Pollock, et al. Resection of pulmonary and extrapulmonary sarcomatous metastases is associated with long-term survival. Ann. Thorac. Surg., September 1, 2009; 88(3): 877 - 884. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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