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Dr. Jemal is Strategic Director, Cancer Surveillance, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Ms. Siegel is Manager, Surveillance Information Services, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Ward is Managing Director, Surveillance Research, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Hao is Senior Epidemiologist, Surveillance Research, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Xu is Epidemiologist, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, MD.
Mr. Murray is Manager, Surveillance Data Systems, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Dr. Thun is Vice President, Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA.
Published online through CA First Look at http://CAonline.AmCancerSoc.org.
| ABSTRACT |
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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Estimated New Cancer Cases
The precise number of cancer cases diagnosed each year in the nation and in every state is unknown because complete cancer registration has not yet been achieved in some states. Furthermore, the most recent year for which incidence and mortality data are available lags 3 to 4 years behind the current year due to the time required for data collection and compilation. Estimated new cancer cases in the current year (2008) were projected using a spatio-temporal model12 based on incidence data from 1995 through 2004 from 41 states and the District of Columbia that met NAACCRs high-quality data standard for incidence, covering about 85% of the US population. The method also considers geographic variations in socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, medical settings, and cancer screening behaviors as predictors of incidence, and accounts for expected delays in case reporting.
Estimated Cancer Deaths
We used the state-space prediction method13 to estimate the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in the United States and in each state in the year 2008. Projections are based on underlying cause of death from death certificates as reported to the NCHS.1 This model projects the number of cancer deaths expected to occur in 2008 based on the number that occurred each year from 1969 to 2005 in the United States and in each state separately.
Other Statistics
We provide mortality statistics for the leading causes of death as well as deaths from cancer in the year 2005. Causes of death for 2005 were coded and classified according to ICD-10.8 This report also provides updated statistics on trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates, the probability of developing cancer, and 5-year relative survival rates for selected cancer sites based on data from 1975 through 2004.3 All age-adjusted incidence and death rates are standardized to the 2000 US standard population and expressed per 100,000 population.
The long-term incidence rates and trends (1975 to 2004) are adjusted for delays in reporting where possible. Delayed reporting primarily affects the most recent 1 to 3 years of incidence data (in this case, 2002 to 2004), especially for cancers such as melanoma, leukemia, and prostate that are frequently diagnosed in outpatient settings. The National Cancer Institute has developed a method to account for expected reporting delays in SEER registries for all cancer sites combined and many specific cancer sites.14 Delay-adjusted rates provide a more accurate assessment of trends in the most recent years for which data are available.
We also provide estimates of the total number of cancer deaths avoided due to the reduction in age-standardized cancer death rates since 1991 in men and 1992 in women. We applied the age-specific cancer death rates in the peak year for the age-standardized cancer death rates (1990 for males and 1991 for females) to the corresponding age-specific populations in the subsequent years through 2004 to obtain the number of expected deaths in each calendar year if the death rates had not decreased. We then summed the difference between the number of expected and observed deaths in each age group and calendar year for men and women separately to obtain the total number of cancer deaths avoided over the 13- or 14-year interval.
| SELECTED FINDINGS |
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Expected Number of New Cancer Deaths
Table 1 also shows the expected number of deaths from cancer projected for 2008 for men, women, and both sexes combined. It is estimated that about 565,650 Americans will die from cancer, corresponding to over 1,500 deaths per day. Cancers of the lung and bronchus, prostate, and colon and rectum in men, and cancers of the lung and bronchus, breast, and colon and rectum in women continue to be the most common fatal cancers. These 4 cancers account for half of the total cancer deaths among men and women (Figure 1). Lung cancer surpassed breast cancer as the leading cause of cancer death in women in 1987. Lung cancer is expected to account for 26% of all female cancer deaths in 2008. Table 3 provides the estimated number of cancer deaths in 2008 by state for selected cancer sites.
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Table 6 shows the contribution of individual cancer sites to the total decrease in overall cancer death rates. Death rates from all cancers combined peaked in 1990 for men and in 1991 for women. Between 1990/1991 and 2004, death rates from cancer decreased by 18.4% among men and by 10.5% among women. Among men, reductions in death rates from lung, prostate, and colorectal cancers account for nearly 80% of the total decrease in cancer death rates, while reductions in death rates from breast and colorectal cancers account for 60% of the decrease among women. Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women alone account for nearly 40% of the sex-specific decreases in cancer death rates. The decrease in lung cancer death rates among men is due to reduction in tobacco use over the past 40 years, while the decrease in death rates for colorectal, female breast, and prostate cancer largely reflects improvements in early detection and treatment.18 Between 1990/1991 and 2004, death rates increased substantially for lung cancer in women and for liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer in men.
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| CANCER OCCURRENCE BY RACE/ETHNICITY |
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Trends in cancer incidence can be adjusted for delayed reporting only in Whites and African Americans because long-term incidence data required for delay adjustment are not available for other racial and ethnic subgroups. From 1995 to 2004, incidence rates in males for all cancer sites combined (unadjusted for delayed reporting) decreased among all racial and ethnic groups except American Indian/Alaska Native men; among women, rates stabilized in all racial and ethnic groups during the same time period. In contrast, death rates from cancer significantly decreased in each racial and ethnic group, with larger decreases in men than in women.3
Death Rates by Educational Attainment, Race, and Sex
Table 12 shows death rates for all cancers combined and the 4 major cancers by educational attainment among White and African American men and women aged 25 to 64 years in 2001.21 The death rate for all cancers combined among less-educated (
12 years of education) compared with more-educated (>12 years of education) people was more than twice as high in men and about 40% higher in women. For specific cancer sites, the ratio of death rates in the less-educated compared with the more-educated group ranged from 1.16 for breast cancer among African American women to 3.36 for lung cancer among White men. For lung cancer in men and women and for colorectal cancer in men, the absolute difference in death rates between the less educated and more educated was larger than the difference between Whites and African Americans by sex at each level of educational attainment. Factors that contribute to higher death rates from cancer in less-educated men and women include higher prevalence of risk factors such as smoking and obesity and limited access to medical services.
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| CANCER IN CHILDREN |
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| LIMITATIONS |
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| Footnotes |
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| REFERENCES |
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M. Kohli and D. J. Tindall New Developments in the Medical Management of Prostate Cancer Mayo Clin. Proc., January 1, 2010; 85(1): 77 - 86. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. J. Eide, R. Krajenta, D. Johnson, J. J. Long, G. Jacobsen, M. M. Asgari, H. W. Lim, and C. C. Johnson Identification of Patients With Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer Using Health Maintenance Organization Claims Data Am. J. Epidemiol., January 1, 2010; 171(1): 123 - 128. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. El-Sahwi, S. Bellone, E. Cocco, F. Casagrande, M. Bellone, M. Abu-Khalaf, N. Buza, F. A. Tavassoli, P. Hui, D. Ruttinger, et al. Overexpression of EpCAM in Uterine Serous Papillary Carcinoma: Implications for EpCAM-Specific Immunotherapy With Human Monoclonal Antibody Adecatumumab (MT201) Mol. Cancer Ther., January 1, 2010; 9(1): 57 - 66. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Behrens, L. Feng, H. Kadara, H.-J. Kim, J. J. Lee, R. Mehran, W. K. Hong, R. Lotan, and I. I. Wistuba Expression of Interleukin-1 Receptor-Associated Kinase-1 in Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma and Preneoplastic Lesions Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2010; 16(1): 34 - 44. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. T. El Gammal, M. Bruchmann, J. Zustin, H. Isbarn, O. J.C. Hellwinkel, J. Kollermann, G. Sauter, R. Simon, W. Wilczak, J. Schwarz, et al. Chromosome 8p Deletions and 8q Gains are Associated with Tumor Progression and Poor Prognosis in Prostate Cancer Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2010; 16(1): 56 - 64. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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I. Leav, J. Plescia, H. L. Goel, J. Li, Z. Jiang, R. J. Cohen, L. R. Languino, and D. C. Altieri Cytoprotective Mitochondrial Chaperone TRAP-1 As a Novel Molecular Target in Localized and Metastatic Prostate Cancer Am. J. Pathol., January 1, 2010; 176(1): 393 - 401. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Mahalingam, E. C. Medina, J. A. Esquivel II, C. M. Espitia, S. Smith, K. Oberheu, R. Swords, K. R. Kelly, M. M. Mita, A. C. Mita, et al. Vorinostat Enhances the Activity of Temsirolimus in Renal Cell Carcinoma Through Suppression of Survivin Levels Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2010; 16(1): 141 - 153. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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N. Sato, J. Koinuma, M. Fujita, M. Hosokawa, T. Ito, E. Tsuchiya, S. Kondo, Y. Nakamura, and Y. Daigo Activation of WD Repeat and High-Mobility Group Box DNA Binding Protein 1 in Pulmonary and Esophageal Carcinogenesis Clin. Cancer Res., January 1, 2010; 16(1): 226 - 239. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A.-M. Tsimberidou, F. Braiteh, D. J. Stewart, and R. Kurzrock Ultimate Fate of Oncology Drugs Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration Without a Randomized Trial J. Clin. Oncol., December 20, 2009; 27(36): 6243 - 6250. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. D. Markowitz and M. M. Bertagnolli Molecular Basis of Colorectal Cancer N. Engl. J. Med., December 17, 2009; 361(25): 2449 - 2460. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. M. Koroukian, F. Xu, P. M. Bakaki, M. Diaz -Insua, T. P. Towe, and C. Owusu Comorbidities, Functional Limitations, and Geriatric Syndromes in Relation to Treatment and Survival Patterns Among Elders With Colorectal Cancer J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci, December 16, 2009; (2009) glp180v1. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. Warin, W. H. Chambers, D. M. Potter, and S. V. Singh Prevention of Mammary Carcinogenesis in MMTV-neu Mice by Cruciferous Vegetable Constituent Benzyl Isothiocyanate Cancer Res., December 15, 2009; 69(24): 9473 - 9480. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Stevenson, W. Mostertz, C. Acharya, W. Kim, K. Walters, W. Barry, K. Higgins, S. A. Tuchman, J. Crawford, G. Vlahovic, et al. Characterizing the Clinical Relevance of an Embryonic Stem Cell Phenotype in Lung Adenocarcinoma Clin. Cancer Res., December 15, 2009; 15(24): 7553 - 7561. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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J. A. Meyerhardt, E. L. Giovannucci, S. Ogino, G. J. Kirkner, A. T. Chan, W. Willett, and C. S. Fuchs Physical Activity and Male Colorectal Cancer Survival Arch Intern Med, December 14, 2009; 169(22): 2102 - 2108. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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G. J. Chang, C.-Y. Hu, C. Eng, J. M. Skibber, and M. A. Rodriguez-Bigas Practical Application of a Calculator for Conditional Survival in Colon Cancer J. Clin. Oncol., December 10, 2009; 27(35): 5938 - 5943. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. Horn, S. E. Dahlberg, A. B. Sandler, A. Dowlati, D. F. Moore, J. R. Murren, and J. H. Schiller Phase II Study of Cisplatin Plus Etoposide and Bevacizumab for Previously Untreated, Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Study E3501 J. Clin. Oncol., December 10, 2009; 27(35): 6006 - 6011. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. S. DeRycke, J. D. Andersen, K. M. Harrington, S. E. Pambuccian, S. E. Kalloger, K. L.M. Boylan, P. A. Argenta, and A. P.N. Skubitz S100A1 Expression in Ovarian and Endometrial Endometrioid Carcinomas Is a Prognostic Indicator of Relapse-Free Survival Am J Clin Pathol, December 1, 2009; 132(6): 846 - 856. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. Mizokami, E. Koh, K. Izumi, K. Narimoto, M. Takeda, S. Honma, J. Dai, E. T Keller, and M. Namiki Prostate cancer stromal cells and LNCaP cells coordinately activate the androgen receptor through synthesis of testosterone and dihydrotestosterone from dehydroepiandrosterone Endocr. Relat. Cancer, December 1, 2009; 16(4): 1139 - 1155. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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S. Darb-Esfahani, R. M Wirtz, B. V Sinn, J. Budczies, A. Noske, W. Weichert, A. Faggad, S. Scharff, J. Sehouli, G. Oskay-Ozcelik, et al. Estrogen receptor 1 mRNA is a prognostic factor in ovarian carcinoma: determination by kinetic PCR in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue Endocr. Relat. Cancer, December 1, 2009; 16(4): 1229 - 1239. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H. Karacay, R. M. Sharkey, D. V. Gold, D. R. Ragland, W. J. McBride, E. A. Rossi, C.-H. Chang, and D. M. Goldenberg Pretargeted Radioimmunotherapy of Pancreatic Cancer Xenografts: TF10-90Y-IMP-288 Alone and Combined with Gemcitabine J. Nucl. Med., December 1, 2009; 50(12): 2008 - 2016. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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P. G. Richardson, E. Weller, S. Jagannath, D. E. Avigan, M. Alsina, R. L. Schlossman, A. Mazumder, N. C. Munshi, I. M. Ghobrial, D. Doss, et al. Multicenter, Phase I, Dose-Escalation Trial of Lenalidomide Plus Bortezomib for Relapsed and Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma J. Clin. Oncol., December 1, 2009; 27(34): 5713 - 5719. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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N. M. Makridakis, T. Phipps, S. Srivastav, and J. K. V. Reichardt PCR-free method detects high frequency of genomic instability in prostate cancer Nucleic Acids Res., December 1, 2009; 37(22): 7441 - 7446. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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D. Y.C. Heng, W. Xie, M. M. Regan, M. A. Warren, A. R. Golshayan, C. Sahi, B. J. Eigl, J. D. Ruether, T. Cheng, S. North, et al. Prognostic Factors for Overall Survival in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated With Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor-Targeted Agents: Results From a Large, Multicenter Study J. Clin. Oncol., December 1, 2009; 27(34): 5794 - 5799. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. J. Hoenerhoff, H. H. Hong, T.-v. Ton, S. A. Lahousse, and R. C. Sills A Review of the Molecular Mechanisms of Chemically Induced Neoplasia in Rat and Mouse Models in National Toxicology Program Bioassays and Their Relevance to Human Cancer Toxicol Pathol, December 1, 2009; 37(7): 835 - 848. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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B. E. Gould Rothberg, A. J. Berger, A. M. Molinaro, A. Subtil, M. O. Krauthammer, R. L. Camp, W. R. Bradley, S. Ariyan, H. M. Kluger, and D. L. Rimm Melanoma Prognostic Model Using Tissue Microarrays and Genetic Algorithms J. Clin. Oncol., December 1, 2009; 27(34): 5772 - 5780. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. C. B. Godoy and D. P. Naidich Subsolid Pulmonary Nodules and the Spectrum of Peripheral Adenocarcinomas of the Lung: Recommended Interim Guidelines for Assessment and Management Radiology, December 1, 2009; 253(3): 606 - 622. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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R. Somwar, D. Shum, H. Djaballah, and H. Varmus Identification and Preliminary Characterization of Novel Small Molecules That Inhibit Growth of Human Lung Adenocarcinoma Cells J Biomol Screen, December 1, 2009; 14(10): 1176 - 1184. [Abstract] [PDF] |
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G. A. Zamboni, M. D'Onofrio, A. Idili, R. Malago, R. Iozzia, E. Manfrin, and R. P. Mucelli Ultrasound-Guided Percutaneous Fine-Needle Aspiration of 545 Focal Pancreatic Lesions Am. J. Roentgenol., December 1, 2009; 193(6): 1691 - 1695. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. Hernandez and R. J. Mermelstein A Conceptual Framework for Advancing Melanoma Health Disparities Research Arch Dermatol, December 1, 2009; 145(12): 1442 - 1446. [Full Text] [PDF] |
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H Endo, K Hosono, T Fujisawa, H Takahashi, M Sugiyama, K Yoneda, Y Nozaki, K Fujita, M Yoneda, M Inamori, et al. Involvement of JNK pathway in the promotion of the early stage of colorectal carcinogenesis under high-fat dietary conditions Gut, December 1, 2009; 58(12): 1637 - 1643. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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L. A. Davidson, N. Wang, M. S. Shah, J. R. Lupton, I. Ivanov, and R. S. Chapkin n-3 Polyunsaturated fatty acids modulate carcinogen-directed non-coding microRNA signatures in rat colon Carcinogenesis, December 1, 2009; 30(12): 2077 - 2084. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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K. Yoshida, K. Nakachi, K. Imai, J. B. Cologne, Y. Niwa, Y. Kusunoki, and T. Hayashi Lung cancer susceptibility among atomic bomb survivors in relation to CA repeat number polymorphism of epidermal growth factor receptor gene and radiation dose Carcinogenesis, December 1, 2009; 30(12): 2037 - 2041. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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A. M. Kamat, S. T. Tharakan, B. Sung, and B. B. Aggarwal Curcumin Potentiates the Antitumor Effects of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin against Bladder Cancer through the Downregulation of NF-{kappa}B and Upregulation of TRAIL Receptors Cancer Res., December 1, 2009; 69(23): 8958 - 8966. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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C. C. Weige, K. F. Allred, and C. D. Allred Estradiol Alters Cell Growth in Nonmalignant Colonocytes and Reduces the Formation of Preneoplastic Lesions in the Colon Cancer Res., December 1, 2009; 69(23): 9118 - 9124. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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M. Avissar, M. D. McClean, K. T. Kelsey, and C. J. Marsit MicroRNA expression in head and neck cancer associates with alcohol consumption and survival Carcinogenesis, December 1, 2009; 30(12): 2059 - 2063. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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